By John Fossey

At least that was the bold statement issued by Ben Hackett, the principal of Hackett Associates, in his key note address at the Cool Logistics conference held in Hamburg earlier this week.

Leading indicators from across the world point to a recovery,' he said. 'The financial markets have stabilised, credit tightness is loosening and the correction in global inventories is winding down. There is real hope of a strong economic rebound and growth in world trade in 2011/12.' However, he stressed that the recovery would probably not be smooth and there might be 'hesitant periods to negotiate'.

Hackett [pictured] believes the turnaround will be led by Asia and other emerging economies and that key economic data in several of these countries pointed to the recovery. 'The purchasing managers' index in China has been above the 50 market, which means growth, since May and the nation's exports have started to pick up again,' explained Hackett.

He claimed that the world had only narrowly missed entering a depression and that GDP and world trade in 2009 would be 2% and 12% lower than in 2008.

Specifically addressing the perishable products trade, Hackett indicated that the market would remain resilient this year. 'People have to eat, recession or not, and in some sectors - notably fruit and vegetables - there will be growth this year,' he told the delegates.

Hackett sees the trade in perishable products exceeding that of dry freight, forecasting long-term annualised growth rates of 4.8% compared with 4/4.3% for standard containers.

'The future lies in fruit and vegetables with South American and Asian countries targeting and growing more crops for export,' he said. 'Russia will recover and be a very large market while the intra-Asia trades are set to become very large ones for reefers.'

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